Final Predictions - Women's Super League

Final Predictions - Women's Super League

Women’s Super League

It genuinely took me 30 minutes to decide where to start with this league. We have 3 teams at the top tied on 24 points (East Anglia Valkyries, Bedford Mighty Eagles & Leamington Spartans). We then have two more teams on 22 points (Derby Phantoms & London Storm) and they’re all playing each other. I’m going to write about the connotations of each teams path to victory, but if I have put a summary table showing the predicted final standing if TL;DR.

 

Out of the top 5, Leamington Spartans and Bedford Mighty Eagles are the only ones playing a team outside the title contenders and that lucky team is Manchester Queen Bees.

Manchester Queen Bees have stayed out of all the drama this season. They’re 9 points away from safety and 8 points off the top 5 scramble, but they have already had an impact on the title race. Phantoms had to settle for a draw with them in meet 6 and Storm haven’t beaten Bees this season (12-10 loss and a 10-10 draw). I would say these matches are the ones that if you are going to win the title you must come out with a result, which both Bedford and Spartans are predicted to do:

Opponent

Leamington Spartans

Bedford Mighty Eagles

Predicted score

10-14

9-15

Probability of winning

15%

9%

Probability of a draw

17%

14%

Probability of losing

67%

77%

 

What are the fixtures between the top 5 then?

17.45: Derby Phantoms v Bedford Mighty Eagles

18.30: London Storm v East Anglia Valkyries

20.00: Leamington Spartans v London Storm AND Derby Phantoms v East Anglia Valkyries

The problem with trying to work all of this out is that even if a team wins both matches then set difference (SD) is a factor.

 

London Storm and Derby Phantoms

The first two matches Phantoms v Mighty Eagles and Storm v Valkyries are both do or die matches for the two teams on 22 points, Phantoms & Storm. If either lose then they will both be 4 points behind the leading pack. In the first leg, Phantoms lost 12-10 to Mighty Eagles and Storm lost 16-8 to Valkyries. To make matters worse, if Spartans beat Queen Bees, then not even third is possible for the two of them. It’s not looking good for Storm & Phantoms…


BUT WAIT, what if they win?

Well, Phantoms would overtake Mighty Eagles on SD into at least 3rd, behind Valkyries & Spartans. Phantoms would then be in prime position to overtake Valkyries regardless of Valkyries first result as they face each other in the final match. Phantoms would then need some outside help from Spartans. If Spartans drop the 2 points and Phantoms have 2 wins, the title is theirs. Easy, right? NOPE, Mighty Eagles could beat Queen Bees convincingly to swing the SD back in their favour over Phantoms. Given that Mighty Eagles trail Phantoms by only 12 SD, that is entirely possible.

Storm needs every result to go their way to snag the league. If they get 2 wins then they will be above Spartans. They will also need Mighty Eagles to pick up a maximum of 2 points and either Phantoms v Valkyries ends in a draw or Storm overcome a 36 point SD. Cinderella story if they do win.

 

Leamington Spartans

When I heard Spartans had lost to Mighty Eagles last league meet, I thought: “unfortunate, but Spartans are still 1 point clear of the chasing pack. It is still theirs to lose”. Then I heard an almighty roar from their second game, the type of roar that could only come from Bedford Rangers. A 12-12 draw means that Spartans are 3rd with a 54 SD, which is 52 less than Valkyries in 1st. This is not a sob story just yet though. All Spartans need to do is better Valkyries and Mighty Eagles results. As they do not play each other it is all out of their hands. Just a reminder there are no guaranteed wins in this league.

 

Bedford Mighty Eagles

I would say Bedford Mighty Eagles are in the best position for the title. They are in second, but unlike Valkyries, they face a team outside of the top 5. That game is also their last and the penultimate before the 20.00 matches. Just like in golf, it’s better to be the leader in the clubhouse than must birdie on the final hole to win. They will have to beat Phantoms to really set a target and, like I have already said, that is a do or die match for Phantoms, so I expect a fierce one.

 

East Anglia Valkyries

Valkyries must win both and score enough points to keep the 26 SD bonus. If they lose either, then the title is most likely lost for them. This team has gone 5 undefeated, which started with 12-8 and 14-8 wins over Mighty Eagles and Leamington Spartans, respectively. They have peaked at the correct time, but can they keep it up?

 

And now, for the numbers behind the connotations…

Predicted results:

 

Game 1

Game 2

Game 3

Game 4

Home Team

Derby Phantoms

London Storm

Leamington Spartans

Derby Phantoms

Opponent

Bedford Mighty Eagles

East Anglia Valkyries

London Storm

East Anglia Valkyries

Predicted score

11-13

11-13

11-13

10-14

Probability of winning

27%

29%

30%

22%

Probability of a draw

21%

22%

22%

20%

Probability of losing

51%

49%

47%

58%

 

Probability of each team winning both matches:

East Anglia Valkyries – 28%

Bedford Mighty Eagles – 39%

Leamington Spartans – 20%

Derby Phantoms – 6%

London Storm – 14 %

 

Predicted final standings if all matches go as the Beverz Rating has predicted:

Team

Points

SD

East Anglia Valkyries

28

114

Bedford Mighty Eagles

28

90

Leamington Spartans

28

62

Derby Phantoms

22

90

London Storm

22

68

 

 

Moving onto the relegation battle…

 

Leicester White Tigers

League 1 is calling, but White Tigers have 2 final attempts at getting the elusive point, Wessex Wolves and Nottingham Sheriffs. Wessex Wolves is the first match of the day for the women’s super league and is their best chance for the two points. Wessex really need the win though as they need at least 3 points to catch Bedford Rangers to avoid relegation. Nottingham Sheriffs have nowhere to go as they are pretty much locked into 6th. Does this mean they will let their guard down and let a White Tiger pounce? We shall have to see.

 

Opponent

Wessex Wolves 

Nottingham Sheriffs

Predicted score

15-9

6-18

Probability of winning

13%

1%

Probability of a draw

16%

3%

Probability of losing

71%

96%

 

Probability of getting a point: 32%

 

Bedford Rangers and Wessex Wolves

If Bedford Rangers beat Nottingham Sheriffs in their first match, they are safe. They are on a dodgeball high right now drawing against top of the league, putting them in a very good position to stay up. They aren’t favourite in this, but they are riding a hype train driven by the rest of their squad.

Wolves face White Tigers first. They could draw in this and still have a chance of staying up, but this relies on Rangers not getting a win or a draw against Sheriffs and Wolves thrashing Rangers. For the sheer entertainment I’m hoping for a Wessex win and a Bedford loss in their first games. The reason is that they play each other in the final match of the season, which would then be a one-on-one shoot out for who stays up. A win for either team would see them stay up. A draw would suffice for Rangers too. I don’t think I need to hype this match up anymore if that is the case.

 

 

Game 1

Game 2

Game 3

Home Team

Bedford Rangers

Bedford Rangers

Wessex Wolves 

Opponent

Nottingham Sheriffs

Wessex Wolves 

Leicester White Tigers

Predicted score

10-14

14-10

15-9

Probability of winning

19%

64%

71%

Probability of a draw

19%

18%

16%

Probability of losing

62%

17%

13%