Final Predictions - Men's Super League & Men's League 1

Final Predictions - Men's Super League & Men's League 1

Today we are going to be looking at the top two men’s divisions. I hope you enjoy.

Men’s Super League

Leamington Spartans

The two teams that stand between Spartans and gold are not easy, they are also fighting for 4th and a lot of pride. Therefore, I would say that Meteors have a good chance of overtaking them on the final day. On the other hand, Spartans beat Rangers 23-5 last meet, to put that in context; Rangers have only scored more than 20 points against 1 team Spartans did it against third place. Killer Bees and Storm look out.

Opponents: Manchester Bees, London Storm.

Opponent

Manchester Bees

London Storm

Predicted score

14-10

15-9

Probability of winning

65%

73%

Probability of a draw

18%

15%

 

Probability of winning both matches: 47%

Lutterworth Meteors

Meteors need Spartans to slip up simple as that and they need to capitalise and take maximum sets as well as points. Even if they catch Spartans on points, they need to overturn 12 SD which shouldn’t be too hard when facing MK cyclones.

Opponents: London Storm, MK Cyclones.

Opponent

London Storm

MK Cyclones

Predicted score

14-10

18-6

Probability of winning

66%

92%

Probability of a draw

18%

5%

 

Probability of winning both matches: 61%

Bedford Rangers

I think their current 3rd place position is not going to change. They need Meteors to lose both, them to win both and overcome 54 SD swing. Sorry not going to happen, but a well-earned third place

Wessex Wolves

All Wessex need is a point and I think their SD advantage keeps them safe as it is almost 100 SD better than the other relegation contenders. Even if they don’t then MK need a win over meteors for them to drop into the bottom 2.

Opponents: Leicester Dodgeball, Bedford Rangers

Opponent

Leicester Dodgeball

Bedford Rangers

Predicted score

11-13

8-16

Probability of winning

31%

5%

Probability of a draw

22%

9%

 

Leicester Dodgeball

If Leicester beat Wessex in the first match or even beat sheriffs in the second, I think this is all she wrote, as MK would need to beat a meteors team gunning for the title that will have one eye on the other court. However, 2 losses open the door for MK to take one win over London Storm 2 and it will come down to SD. The magic number is 32 so the door may be only open a crack.

Opponents: Wessex Wolves, Nottingham Sheriffs

Opponent

Wessex Wolves

Nottingham Sheriffs

Predicted score

13-11

10-14

Probability of winning

47%

22%

Probability of a draw

22%

20%

 

MK Cyclones

They will already know if they can avoid relegation as Wessex and Leicester are on before them. If Leicester win then they just need to win, but then they would also need to beat Meteors to go above Wessex. If Wessex win, they need to win big over London Storm 2, to help get the 32 SD needed to overtake Leicester, a tough ask but possible 

Opponents: London Storm 2, Lutterworth Meteors

Opponent

London Storm 2

Lutterworth Meteors

Predicted score

12 (f) - 12

18-6

Probability of winning

43%

2%

Probability of a draw

22%

5%

 

London Storm 2

This would be the great escape if Storm 2 don’t finish in the bottom 2, a win against MK cyclones is a relatively easy first step but they need to do that and then beat the Manchester Killer Bees. Even then it is still in the hands of others, they need Leicester to slip up in both of their games and MK to lose against Meteors. A lot to ask but a reporter’s dream.

Opponents: MK Cyclones, Manchester Killer Bees

Opponent

MK Cyclones

Manchester Killer Bees

Predicted score

12-12

17-7

Probability of winning

34%

5%

Probability of a draw

22%

9%

 

Men’s League 1

This league has been entertaining from start to finish but is there going to be a twist at the end.

Coventry Silverbacks

The top three is all about who makes a mistake as none of the top three are playing each other. Coventry Silverbacks even avoid the top 5 in their final two games. Derby are one point behind with tied SD so if Coventry slip up, even with a draw, then derby could sneak in and take the title.

Opponents: Worchester Virtue Empire, Nottingham Sheriffs 2

Opponent

Worchester Virtue Empire

Nottingham Sheriffs 2

Predicted score

16-8

14-10

Probability of winning

81%

67%

Probability of a draw

12%

18%

 

Probability of winning both matches: 54%

Derby Phantoms

I think Phantoms are looking ahead of them rather than behind as Mighty Eagles and themselves have similar matches and Phantoms have a three-point advantage thank you to Silverbacks beating them last week. Like I have already said if Silverbacks slip up Phantoms will pounce. They would have to get past both Leeds Owls and Manchester Worker Bees who faced each other in meet 8. Leeds came out on top, but it was down to the final set in a 13-11 win. Luckily Mighty Eagles must face Owls as well and win to have any chance of catching Derby.

Opponents: Manchester Worker Bees, Leeds Owls

Opponent

Manchester Worker Bees

Leeds Owls

Predicted score

15-9

12 (f) -12

Probability of winning

71%

43%

Probability of a draw

16%

22%

 

Probability of winning both matches: 31%

 

Bedford Mighty Eagles & Leeds Owls

Mighty Eagles have all but locked up third but two wins from Owls, one of which is against Mighty Eagles and 2 losses from Mighty Eagles means it would come down to SD. 34-set difference is easily on the cards if the results fall into place. However, the likelihood of Owls beating Phantoms and Mighty Eagles losing to Strom 3 is low. Also Bedford is neither black and gold not teal as the final score over two legs was 23-23.

Opponent

Leeds Owls

Storm 3

Predicted score

15-9

18-6

Probability of winning

70%

94%

Probability of a draw

16%

4%

 

Probability of 2 losses for Mighty Eagles: 0.2%

Manchester Worker Bees

Virtue Empire and Thunderdodge would both have to overtake bees for them to be in the bottom 2 and they are facing each other. Only a Thunderdodge win and then wins for both teams in their other match would mean this happens. Virtue Empire are facing Silverbacks, I think they will be fine.

Virtue Empire and Thunderdodge

The match between these two teams will decide both teams’ fate, mathematically. However, because of a 66 SD between the two there must be a swing there as well for Thunderdodge to have a chance. A point against Sheriffs 2 would go a long way and if Silverbacks win big it would help. We shall know the magic number going into their matchup as it is both team’s last match.

Opponent

Thunderdodge v Sheriffs 2

Thunderdodge v Virtue Empire

Predicted score

10-14

11-13 (virtue win)

Probability of winning

16%

29%

Probability of a draw

18%

22%

Probability of losing

67%

49%

 

London Storm 3

Unfortunately relegated but they would love it if they could take down either Bedford team to go down in style.