Final Predictions - League 3

Final Predictions - League 3

This week we shall be doing a countdown to the final league meet of the season.

There is a little bit of uncertainty about the league structure next year, but British Dodgeball have covered all eventualities in section 4.3 of the Adult regulations 2021-2022

So in a nutshell, each team is ranked nationally and the only difference between league ranking and this is that the top two of the lower division are ranked higher than the bottom two of the division above.

This means if BD expand, reduce the size of a league, or split any leagues then this ranking is what it shall be based off. Therefore, every place will matter, but for now, we're only going to be focusing on the top three as these are the medal places and then the bottom 2 who are theoretically relegated.

On to the predictions!

Men’s League 3 Relegation

We start with the Men’s League Three where “relegation” is all but decided so we won’t dwell on it too much. The positive spin for Burton is that they have won a match and have improved every league meet so we shall have to see if they come back next season and see if they are as fired up as they have been this season.

I say all but decided but the Neophytes have something to fight for. First of all with two wins and Norwich Nighthawks 3 having two losses means they would climb up to 8th. I might be a little weird but I think there is some pride in either beating or drawing against Leicester Predators so that they cannot win the title. We shall have to see what they do.

Men’s League 3 medals

Coventry Silverbacks

This title just needs a cherry on top, yes, they are only 1 point ahead of Leicester Predators but they have two of the easiest matches to take away a final day nail biter. Even then the Predators do not have walkovers. We shall have to see, but the predicted scores speak for themselves.

Opponents: Norwich Nighthawks 3, Worcester Virtue Slayers.


Norwich Nighthawks 3

Worcester Virtue Slayers

Predicted score



Probability of winning*



Probability of a draw*




Probability of winning both matches: 91%*

Leicester Predators

Predators have secured silver with a 7-point advantage over 3rd, so their eyes are set on first. As I have already said they need a lot to even have a chance of winning. If the unlikely were to happen, then Predators will need to make sure they beat a Bovines team who only narrowly lost to their title rivals and can get a bronze medal. I am not 100% sure on my new math formula but a probability of winning of 99.7% is a little high in my opinion, prove me wrong Neophytes.

Opponents: Sheffield Bovines, Worcestershire Virtue Neophytes.


Sheffield Bovines

Worcestershire Virtue Neophytes

Predicted score



Probability of winning*



Probability of a draw*




Probability of winning both matches: 68%*

Norwich Nighthawks 2/ Sheffield Bovines

Third place is between Bovines and the Nighthawks 2, before Nighthawks 2 step onto the court they may have a 3-point cushion if Sheffield lose to Predators. Either way they have Burton as their first match so should be straight forward. The sure-fire way to secure bronze is to beat Bovines in the last match of the session, either way it should be a great match but Leamington Spartans might be trying to win the super league at the same time.

Opponents: Norwich Nighthawks 2 v Burton Bears, Sheffield v Predators (shown above), then they will face each other.


Burton Bears

Sheffield Bovines

Predicted score



Probability of winning*



Probability of a draw*




Probability of winning both matches: 45%*


*calculated using a binomial distribution based on 12 sets.